Field notes ·
When a variance pattern means you should reforecast
Signals that a budget variance analysis is no longer explaining noise and is instead describing a plan that no longer holds.
Repeated timing explanations that never reverse are not timing problems. They are plan problems wearing temporary labels.
If the same three cost centres miss for three consecutive months in the same direction, schedule a reforecast conversation rather than another explanatory footnote.
Revenue mix shifts that your volume assumptions cannot absorb also warrant a reforecast, even when total revenue looks acceptable.
Treat reforecast as a decision, not a punishment. Teams that fear the word will keep writing hopeful variance notes long after the plan has expired.